中国PCB行业：5G时代的主导地位日益增强（附下载）
China PCB sector ：Growing dominance in the 5G era
中国PCB行业：5G时代的主导地位日益增强
报告摘要：
China PCB industry’s version of “supply-side reform”
中国PCB产业版“供给侧改革”
Under the banner of “environmental protection” centred on cutting waste water discharge and improving air quality, China’s PCB industry has been seeing “supply-side reforms” since late 2017. Authorities have indirectly forced many PCB “shops” out of business via suspension orders. As the policy continues to be tightened and enforced strictly, environmental bills (either fine or additional expenditure in environmental equipment) are eating up profits of the remaining small PCB companies who could gradually exit the market.
在以减少废水排放和改善空气质量为中心的“环保”的旗帜下，中国的PCB行业自2017年底以来一直在看“供应方改革”。当局通过暂停令，间接迫使许多PCB“商店”停业。 随着政策继续得到严格执行和加强，环境法案（环境设备的罚款或额外支出）正在耗尽剩余的小型PCB公司的利润，这些公司可能逐渐退出市场。
The rise of 5G to drive PCB demand
5G的崛起推动了PCB的需求
Initially, 5G will be rolled out in telecom, then IDC and, finally, in consumer electronics, all benefitting the PCB sector in both volume and ASP growth from upgrades in materials and manufacturing process. The growing demand for 5G was seen in the 2Q19 result comments of global leading tech companies, such as TSMC (reality check link). We expect the PCB content value per station for 5G macro station to be ~3 times of 4G stations in the initial stages and ~1.8 times in the mature stage.
最初，5G将在电信，IDC以及最终的消费电子产品中推出，所有这些都将通过材料和制造工艺的升级使PCB部门在数量和ASP增长方面受益。 在台积电（现实检查链接）等全球领先科技公司的2Q19结果评论中，对5G的需求不断增长。 我们预计5G宏站每站的PCB内容值是初始阶段4G站的~3倍，成熟阶段约为1.8倍。
More growth and less cyclical than in previous technology cycles
比以前的技术周期更多的增长和更少的周期性
PCB is commonly perceived as a commodity-like sector. However, we believe with positives in both supply and demand, the 5G cycle presents more growth and less cyclical features in the next 2-3 years for select China PCB companies. SYTECH, the world’s 2nd largest laminate company in capacity, is closing the technology gap with industry leaders and is part of Huawei’s plan B. SCC earns 60% of its revenues from telecom and is the #1 PCB supplier for Huawei. We view it as the best substrate company in China and should benefit from import substitution. WUS earns 60% of its revenues from telecom and is the #2 PCB supplier to Huawei. It turned around in 1H18 after 4 years of barely breaking even.
PCB通常被视为类似商品的行业。 然而，我们认为供需双方都有利好因素，对于特定的中国PCB公司而言，5G周期将在未来2 – 3年内呈现出更多的增长和更少的周期性特征。 全球第二大层压板公司SYTECH正在缩小与行业领导者的技术差距，并且是华为计划B的一部分.SCC的60％收入来自电信，是华为的第一大PCB供应商。 我们认为它是中国最好的基材公司，应该从进口替代中受益。 WUS的60％收入来自电信，是华为的第二大PCB供应商。 经过4年的勉强收支平衡后，它在上半年扭亏为盈。
Stock recommendations
股票推荐
We have an Outperform ratings on SYTECH (TP of Rmb25.00 at 32x 2020E PER, currently trading at 34x/ 27x 19/20E EPS) and SCC (TP of Rmb139.50 at 34x 2020E PER, currently trading at 43/ 30x 19/20E EPS). By contrast, we are Neutral on WUS (TP of Rmb18.50 at 27x 2020E PER, currently trading at 34/28x 19/20E EPS) due to stretched valuations near-term. We estimate SYTECH, SCC, and WUS will show 19-21E EPS CAGRs of 28%/35%/25%, respectively.
我们对SYTECH的评级为优于大市（目标价为人民币25.00元，目标价为32倍2020E PER，目前交易价格为34倍/ 27倍19 / 20E每股盈利）和SCC（目标价为人民币139.50元，目标价为34倍2020年市盈率，目前交易价为43 / 30x 19 / 20E EPS）。 相比之下，由于近期估值偏高，我们对WUS持中性评级（目标价为18.50 2020人民币，目前交易价格为34 / 28x 19 / 20E每股盈利）。 我们估计SYTECH，SCC和WUS的19-21E EPS年复合增长率分别为28％/ 35％/ 25％。
