瑞银-钴:是时候看多了? (附下载)



UBS Evidence Lab inside: Is it time to get bullish?


Cobalt supply/ demand fundamentals improve: price risk now firmly to upside

We update our cobalt (Co) supply forecasts to reflect the recent developments (eg Mutanda closure, slower Katanga ramp up etc) & use UBS Evidence Lab satellite images to evaluate progress at the other major cobalt projects in the DRC. Our demand forecasts are broadly unchanged, with Electric Vehicle (EV) penetration still expected to reach ~17% by 2025. We now expect the cobalt market to be in only a modest surplus in 2019-23 which we believe can be absorbed by OEMs & battery-makers building inventory. As a result, we believe the risk/reward to the spot cobalt price is now firmly to the upside; we expect the cobalt price to increase ~60% over the next 18 months, back to ~US$20/lb. We see further material upside in 2024/25 when the market is set to move into a deficit (albeit we see potential for further DRC projects to fill the gap).

我们更新我们的钴(Co)供应预测,以反映最近的发展(例如Mutanda关闭,较慢的Katanga加速等)并使用UBS Evidence Lab卫星图像来评估刚果民主共和国其他主要钴项目的进展。 我们的需求预测大致保持不变,电动汽车(EV)渗透率预计到2025年仍将达到约17%。我们现在预计2019  –  23年钴市场将仅出现适度盈余,我们相信可以被OEM和 电池制造商建立库存。 因此,我们认为现货钴价的风险/回报现在已经稳固上行; 我们预计钴价将在未来18个月内上涨约60%,回到~20美元/磅。 我们认为,当市场陷入赤字时,2024/25年会有进一步的上涨空间(虽然我们认为可能会有更多的刚果民主共和国项目填补这一空白)。

DRC politics still risk to supply: currently there is an uneasy calm after election

In our view, DRC politics remain a key risk to Co supply near & medium-term. Felix Tshisekedi became President in a contested election in Jan-19. He appointed Sylvestre Ilukamba as Prime Minister in May-19 (under a political agreement with former President Kabila) but is still to appoint a cabinet (news). Mining companies, including GLEN, still dispute the new Mining Code but negotiations have not yet restarted.

我们认为,刚果民主共和国政治仍然是近期和中期Co供应的主要风险。 Felix Tshisekedi在1月19日的竞选中当选总统。 他于5月19日任命Sylvestre Ilukamba为总理(根据与前总统卡比拉的政治协议),但仍然任命一个内阁(新闻)。 包括GLEN在内的矿业公司仍然对新的采矿守则提出异议,但谈判尚未重启。

UBS Evidence Lab inside: new images of 2 key privately-owned cobalt projects

UBS Evidence Lab satellite images improve our understanding of 2 major privately-owned Co projects: Mutoshi (+13kt) & Deziwa (+10kt). Development work continues at both despite the fall in the Co price. Both projects look set to ramp up in H2-20 with Mutoshi slightly behind schedule. The latest production data from the DRC Ministry of Mines suggests RTR (+21kt) has had ramp up issues similar to Katanga (+30kt).

瑞银证据实验室卫星图像提高了我们对2个主要私营公司项目的理解:Mutoshi(+ 13kt)和Deziwa(+ 10kt)。 尽管Co价格下跌,但两者的开发工作仍在继续。 两个项目看起来都将在H2-20上升,而Mutoshi略微落后于计划。 刚果民主共和国矿业部的最新生产数据表明,RTR(+ 21kt)的加速问题类似于Katanga(+ 30kt)。

Stocks:  GLEN & China Moly key producers; stocks down on weaker Co prices

GLEN is the largest cobalt producer globally (29% mkt share) followed by China Moly (10%). GLEN has underperformed peers by ~35% in 2019 due to its commodity mix (no iron ore; weak thermal coal/ Co prices), ongoing concerns over DOJ investigation & DRC issues; it also suffered more as trade war concerns escalated due to its higher leverage & base metal exposure. We expect the market to remain sceptical on GLEN’s H2 volume recovery/ African turnaround/ 2020 coal price until visibility improves.

股票:GLEN&China Moly主要生产商; 库存下降导致库存下降
GLEN是全球最大的钴生产商(占29%mkt),其次是China Moly(10%)。 由于其商品组合(没有铁矿石;动力煤/ Co价格疲软),对DOJ调查和DRC问题持续担忧,GLEN在2019年的表现落后于同行约35%。 由于其较高的杠杆率和基本金属风险,贸易战担忧升级,也遭受更多损失。 我们预计市场将继续对GLEN的H2产量回升/非洲周转/ 2020年煤价持怀疑态度,直至能见度提升。