There are different ways to analyze the global economy. One is to view it through the lens of growth and struc-tural change in individual economies, developed and developing. A second is to use the lens of global value chains (GVCs), the complex network structure of flows of goods, services, capital and technology across national borders. Both are useful and they are complementary to one another.

分析全球经济有不同的方法。 一个是通过发展和发展的个别经济体的增长和结构变化的视角来看待它。 第二个是利用全球价值链(GVCs)的镜头,跨越国界的商品,服务,资本和技术流动的复杂网络结构。 两者都很有用,它们互为补充。

The 2019 edition of the GVC Development Report is enor-mously valuable, in part because it captures the underlying tech-nological and economic forces that are transforming the patterns of global interconnectedness.


The report notes that there are two megatrends in process. One is the growth of developing countries, the expansion of the middle classes in them, and the shift in the share of global purchas-ing power toward the developing economies. By itself this would produce major shifts in the characteristics of GVCs. Regional trade rises as a share, especially in Asia. More production now goes to rapidly growing domestic markets in developing countries instead of being exported outside the region. Trade is shifting from a stark version of comparative advantage based on differential labor costs and labor arbitrage, toward something that more closely resembles the intra-industry model of trade among developed economies based on product and technological differentiation. Of course, that process is far from complete, and there remain ear-ly-stage, and relatively low-income developing countries for which the growth models will continue to depend on accessing global demand via labor-intensive, process-oriented manufacturing.


The second megatrend is the digitization of the underpinnings of entire economies and, by implication, GVCs and the global economy. This too is a process that is underway and one that has much further to go. It is difficult if not impossible to accurately pre-dict the endpoint, if there is one. But there are important insights that the second GVC report highlights.

第二个大趋势是整个经济体的基础数字化,并暗示着全球价值链和全球经济。 这也是一个正在进行的过程,还有一个进一步发展的过程。 如果存在端点,则很难准确地预先确定端点。 但第二个GVC报告强调了一些重要的见解。

One clear message is that as economies move to being built in part on digital foundations, trade, GVCs and digital technology cannot be separated and dealt with as independent trends and forces.


For early-stage developing countries, automation will at some point displace the labor-intensive technologies that underpinned the earlier Asian growth stories. That shift will occur differentially by sector, with textiles and more generally the sewing trades being the least vulnerable in the short run. The message is two-fold: don’t give up on the traditional growth model but move rap-idly to expand internet capability and the digital underpinnings and infrastructure of the economy.

对于早期发展中国家而言,自动化将在某种程度上取代支撑早期亚洲增长故事的劳动密集型技术。 这种转变将出现不同的部门,纺织品和更普遍的缝纫行业在短期内是最不容易受到影响的。 这个信息是双重的:不要放弃传统的增长模式,而应该迅速扩大互联网能力以及数字基础和经济基础设施。


第1章   最近的全球生产模式和GVC参与
第2章   发达经济体的贸易,价值链和劳动力市场
第3章   发展中经济体的全球价值链和就业
第4章   发展中国家的技术进步,传播和机遇:来自中国的经验教训
第5章   了解供应链4.0及其对全球价值链的潜在影响
第6章   数字经济,全球价值链和中小企业
第7章   出口的高国内增值是否应成为政策目标?
第8章   改进全球价值链分析的会计框架
附录1   章节作者会议:最终节目
附录2   全球化世界中的技术创新,供应链贸易和工人:2019年全球价值链发展报告背景文件会议